It’s Election Day and we’re, regretfully, anticipating a landslide loss for Republican candidate Mark Moores in the special election for congressional district 1 race to replace Congresswoman Deborah Haaland who has been appointed by president Joe Biden to lead the Department of Interior.

Mark Moores was chosen as the Republican nominee and put on the ballot to represent Republicans in a central committee meeting held via Zoom. A number of other candidates had entered the race, but Moores easily came out in the lead.

Yesterday, Albuquerque Journal capitol bureau writer Dan Boyd shared the data on voter turnout by political party. While Republicans should have a higher turnout on Election Day because they statistically have a higher turnout on the final voting day, it will be a miracle if Moores manages to get 35% of the vote. Our prediction is Moores will earn a solid 1/3 of the vote, partially due to third party contenders including Independent candidate Aubrey Dunn.

How did we get here? Why is it going to be that bad?

Voting update for #NM CD1 special election. Total of 93,563 voters cast ballots through end of early voting. Here's breakdown by party affiliation.

Democrats – 54,111
Republicans – 27,934
Libertarians – 457
Independents/other – 11,061

Election Day is tomorrow, June 1. #nmpol

— Dan Boyd (@DanBoydNM) May 31, 2021

We’re not prepared to share a complete analysis, but a few points that have made victory almost impossible for Moores include, little get out the vote effort outside his small campaign apparatus, a state party that did little to nothing to help his campaign, Moore’s own poor campaign priorities (like a random trip to Amarillo) and the fractured party from the Libertarian split to the Eddy Aragon voter turnout suppression tactics.

• Moores Failings: his biggest problem seemed to be that he had no concise message to attract support. He courted a few libertarian and liberal ideas, but also tried to appeal to the far right. There was no messaging to attract swing voters or conservative Democrats. His opponent Melanie Stansbury has some important failings, but a contrast was not drawn between the two or made clear.
• Republican Party Failings: Just as the election for CD1 was finalized, the Republican Party of New Mexico was finalizing their own plans for a “getaway” to Amarillo, Texas, an essential “run” from the problems they faced in New Mexico so leaders could celebrate and party with big names like Kristi Noem (a sell-out in her own right when it comes to women’s rights). Who would plan an event out of state just weeks before a special election? Chairman Steve Pearce, that’s who. Does it make you wonder if he wanted to lose this special election?
• Purists and QAnon: At this point, in New Mexico politics, Republican purists and QAnon clingers, which include party leaders on the state executive board, have done a great job of sending the message that they won’t vote for candidates unless they agree with them 100%. These are your hardcore social issue voters who don’t care about another issue, or worse yet, conspiracy theorists who believe if you’re not 100% Trump, you have no business in Republican politics– but remember these are the same people who were the greatest bashers of those who were reluctant to cling to Trump, saying that he was for the better good (and we agree that he did a lot of good) and that you shouldn’t vote against him because you disagreed in one or two areas.
• Infiltrators & Antifa: While they’re not at the forefront of the cause right now, Leftist infiltrators like Dinah Vargas are still working behind the scenes. They’ve disrupted the party and clung to leaders like Steve Pearce who have embraced their strange journalism and united hatred for retired leaders like Governor Susana Martinez. Eddy Aragon, the newly-christened Republican who runs for everything is also an infiltrator of sorts because he has yet to do anything positive for the party except speak loudly and bash those who oppose him– who has he elected? How has he united the party? What proof do we have that he’s conservative beyond his intimidation tactics and threats?

What are the voters, insiders and activists of congressional district 1 saying? Some have said they believe Republicans are apathetic because Eddy Aragon, or another they favored didn’t get the nomination, however, despite Eddy’s echo chamber of popularity, he seems to be virtually unknown on the street by average voters.

Pearce, apparently, had a plan to turn out voters. Too bad it was in Amarillo.

So where will we be as 7 p.m. approaches and the polls close? Moores is going to get about 33% of the vote (maybe as much as 35%).

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